The supply picture
New retail supply in Sydney is easing (-6% year-on-year) — the pipeline is thinning, which is supportive for existing assets over time.
Precinct by precinct
Across 322 Sydney retail precincts, the current tilt is 96 tightening · 67 demand-led · 93 quiet · 66 oversupply risk (median supply change -22% year-on-year). This is a stock-picker's market: the pressure is uneven, not uniform.
Tightening / demand-led: Hurstville - Central, Ultimo, Wiley Park, Auburn - North
Watch (oversupply risk): Glebe - Forest Lodge, Matraville - Chifley, Baulkham Hills (West) - Bella Vista, Glenwood
The sector backdrop
Valuations lag rates — capital softening still to come; income cushions it. Retail cap rates sit around 5.59% on our national read. Conditions are neutral / transitional on our macro read.
Cap rate = the yearly income as a share of price (a higher number is cheaper). The number above is a market read; where our model puts fair value, and the five-year return forecast, are in the report.
The full Sydney retail read
Fair-value cap rate, the five-year total-return forecast and the downside range — plus the precinct data in full — sit in the Sydney Retail report, refreshed every edition.
See the report →Source: ABS building approvals (supply), MPLC precinct model to SA2 (demand tilt), RBA (rates, yields) and the MPLC valuation model. As at September 2026. Information & forecasts only — not advice.