This record is young — and we won't dress it up. We began publishing in July 2026. What you can verify today: that every call is dated and unedited, and that the macro we cite is the real print. What you'll verify over time: whether the way we've leaned holds up. We don't claim a track record we haven't earned yet.
Every brief, as published
17 editions on the record. Each one is a dated page — the forecast, the reasoning and the sources, left exactly as it went out.
2026-09-25This weekBond yields spike as a rate rise looks locked inRead →2026-09-21Japanese capital bets big on industrial before RBA's callRead →2026-09-18Bond yields surge again, industrial keeps drawing capitalRead →2026-09-14Bond Shock Puts a Fresh Test on Property ValuesRead →2026-09-11Bond yields punch through 15-year highs as oil bitesRead →2026-09-07Bond shock tests property's nerve at week's startRead →2026-09-04Bond Yields Rip Higher, Deals Keep Coming AnywayRead →2026-08-31Bond Yields Jump Just as Office Money ReturnsRead →2026-08-28Hot Inflation Jolts Bonds, Deals Keep ComingRead →2026-08-24The numbers, by sectorRead →2026-08-17Bond yields punch through 5% as landlords keep sellingRead →2026-08-14RBA holds firm, but bond market keeps landlords honestRead →2026-08-10Office glut deepens as landlords quietly cash outRead →2026-07-17Rates on hold, bonds edge higher, industrial pulls offshore money backRead →2026-07-13Pubs and Boxes Trade While Rates Hold Their NerveRead →2026-07-10Local money fills the gap as rates stay putRead →2026-07-06Local Money Fills the Gap While Rates HoldRead →The macro backdrop, quarter by quarter
The environment the calls were made in, read across quarters — cash rate, 10-year Commonwealth bond, BBB credit spread, headline CPI and unemployment, with the regime our model called at each print. This is the read you can hold us to.
| Cash rate | 10yr ACGB | BBB spread | CPI y/y | Unemp. | Regime | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02 | 4.10% | 4.42% | 1.04% | — | 4.1% | Neutral · transition |
| 2025-05 | 3.85% | 4.35% | 1.22% | — | 4.1% | Neutral · transition |
| 2025-08 | 3.60% | 4.28% | 1.11% | — | 4.2% | Neutral · transition |
| 2026-02 | 3.85% | 4.76% | 0.99% | — | 4.3% | Neutral · transition |
| 2026-03 | 4.10% | 4.93% | 1.30% | 4.1% | 4.3% | Restrictive · inflation |
| 2026-05 | 4.35% | 4.98% | 0.94% | — | 4.4% | Neutral · transition |
Source: RBA (cash rate, yields, spreads) and ABS (CPI, unemployment), as published. Values shown for the periods our data carries a reading.
The current stance, by sector
Our order of preference right now — richest value to thinnest — and the one-line read behind each. The five-year return forecasts and fair-value targets underneath sit in the report.
Each sector's five-year total-return forecast, fair-value cap rate and downside range — the numbers we stand behind — are in the report, refreshed every edition.
Direction is on the record so it can be checked against how each sector actually trades; the underlying figures are the paid product. Information & forecasts only — not advice.