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Track record

The calls, dated and
on the record.

Everything below is checkable: the briefs are public pages we don't edit after they go out, the conditions are the prints as the RBA and ABS published them, and where we lean is on the record, dated. The forecasts behind it are in the report.

This record is young — and we won't dress it up. We began publishing in July 2026. What you can verify today: that every call is dated and unedited, and that the macro we cite is the real print. What you'll verify over time: whether the way we've leaned holds up. We don't claim a track record we haven't earned yet.

The receipts

Every brief, as published

5 editions on the record. Each one is a dated page — the forecast, the reasoning and the sources, left exactly as it went out.

2026-07-25This weekDomestic buyers fill the gap while rates holdRead →2026-07-17Rates on hold, bonds edge higher, industrial pulls offshore money backRead →2026-07-13Pubs and Boxes Trade While Rates Hold Their NerveRead →2026-07-10Local money fills the gap as rates stay putRead →2026-07-06Local Money Fills the Gap While Rates HoldRead →
The conditions

The macro backdrop, quarter by quarter

The environment the calls were made in, read across quarters — cash rate, 10-year Commonwealth bond, BBB credit spread, headline CPI and unemployment, with the regime our model called at each print. This is the read you can hold us to.

PrintCash rate10yr ACGBBBB spread CPI y/yUnemp.Regime
2025-024.10%4.42%1.04%4.1%Neutral · transition
2025-053.85%4.35%1.22%4.1%Neutral · transition
2025-083.60%4.28%1.11%4.3%Neutral · transition
2026-023.85%4.76%0.99%4.3%Neutral · transition
2026-034.10%4.93%1.30%4.1%4.3%Restrictive · inflation
2026-054.35%4.98%0.94%4.4%Neutral · transition

Source: RBA (cash rate, yields, spreads) and ABS (CPI, unemployment), as published. Values shown for the periods our data carries a reading.

Where we lean

The current stance, by sector

Our order of preference right now — richest value to thinnest — and the one-line read behind each. The five-year return forecasts and fair-value targets underneath sit in the report.

As at 2026-07-24 · direction only
1IndustrialPreferSome softening already priced in; income carries the return.
2AlternativesNeutral
3OfficeNeutral
4All PropertyNeutralValuations lag rates — capital softening still to come; income cushions it.
5RetailCautious
Behind the ranking

Each sector's five-year total-return forecast, fair-value cap rate and downside range — the numbers we stand behind — are in the report, refreshed every edition.

See the report →

Direction is on the record so it can be checked against how each sector actually trades; the underlying figures are the paid product. Information & forecasts only — not advice.