The supply picture
New retail supply in Adelaide is building (+54% year-on-year). A rising pipeline is the risk to watch: more product competing for the same tenants pressures rents and values.
Precinct by precinct
Across 102 Adelaide retail precincts, the current tilt is 25 tightening · 28 demand-led · 27 quiet · 22 oversupply risk (median supply change +3% year-on-year). This is a stock-picker's market: the pressure is uneven, not uniform.
Tightening / demand-led: Davoren Park, Smithfield - Elizabeth North, Morphett Vale - West, Richmond (SA)
Watch (oversupply risk): Lobethal - Woodside, Virginia - Waterloo Corner, Norwood (SA), West Lakes
The sector backdrop
Valuations lag rates — capital softening still to come; income cushions it. Retail cap rates sit around 5.59% on our national read. Conditions are neutral / transitional on our macro read.
Cap rate = the yearly income as a share of price (a higher number is cheaper). The number above is a market read; where our model puts fair value, and the five-year return forecast, are in the report.
The full Adelaide retail read
Fair-value cap rate, the five-year total-return forecast and the downside range — plus the precinct data in full — sit in the Adelaide Retail report, refreshed every edition.
See the report →Source: ABS building approvals (supply), MPLC precinct model to SA2 (demand tilt), RBA (rates, yields) and the MPLC valuation model. As at September 2026. Information & forecasts only — not advice.