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This quarter's five-year return by sector
Where cap rates sit and where they're heading
The three signals we're watching most

Executive summary · this quarter

Income is doing the work while values soften.

Across the five major markets, our base case puts five-year total returns between 6.88% and 8.87% a year depending on sector — one of the widest spreads in years. The running yield is carrying total return; the action is in where capital values go from here.

Sector	5-yr return p.a.	Cap rate now	Chance of a capital fall
Industrial Strongest	8.87%	5.40%	13%
Alternatives	8.25%	5.87%	21%
Office	7.92%	6.32%	30%
Diversified	7.41%	5.55%	28%
Retail	6.88%	5.59%	35%

Three things we're watching

Industrial leads on risk-adjusted return — the strongest forecast and the lowest chance of a capital loss of any sector.

Office supply is collapsing — Sydney approvals are down 30.60% year-on-year, which supports the value of standing towers even while sentiment lags.

Retail carries the widest risk — the fortress centres hold their value; the average centre is where the downside sits.

This is the top line.

The full reports break every market and sector down — the scenario stress-test, the leasing signal, and the data behind every number.

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