The supply picture
New industrial supply in Melbourne is easing (-6% year-on-year) — the pipeline is thinning, which is supportive for existing assets over time.
Precinct by precinct
Across 204 Melbourne industrial precincts, the current tilt is 61 tightening · 43 demand-led · 55 quiet · 45 oversupply risk (median supply change -32% year-on-year). This is a stock-picker's market: the pressure is uneven, not uniform.
Tightening / demand-led: Essendon Airport, Keysborough - North, Hampton Park - East, Derrimut
Watch (oversupply risk): Werribee - South, Keilor, Wandin - Seville, Mordialloc - Parkdale
The sector backdrop
Some softening already priced in; income carries the return. Industrial cap rates sit around 5.40% on our national read. Conditions are neutral / transitional on our macro read.
Cap rate = the yearly income as a share of price (a higher number is cheaper). The number above is a market read; where our model puts fair value, and the five-year return forecast, are in the report.
The full Melbourne industrial read
Fair-value cap rate, the five-year total-return forecast and the downside range — plus the precinct data in full — sit in the Melbourne Industrial report, refreshed every edition.
See the report →Source: ABS building approvals (supply), MPLC precinct model to SA2 (demand tilt), RBA (rates, yields) and the MPLC valuation model. As at September 2026. Information & forecasts only — not advice.