What makes MPLC Research's forecasting model different?
Three things: it's independent, it's reproducible from public data, and it joins three views of the market that most houses look at one at a time.
We do not develop, invest in, or broker property, and we take no paid private feeds. Every number is rebuildable from the Reserve Bank and the ABS. So there is nothing to talk up and no book to protect — the model says what the data says, including when that's unwelcome (like calling repricing while the market hopes for compression).
How does the model actually work?
It combines three lenses into one read:
1. Macro (top-down) — the cash rate, 10-year bond, credit spreads and inflation drive a fair-value yield for each sector through tested error-correction relationships. 2. Cross-sectional — we measure how sectors and cities move together or diverge, so no asset is judged in isolation (residential, for instance, is a genuine diversifier against a commercial market that largely moves as one bloc). 3. Bottom-up — building approvals and precinct-level demand, read down to roughly 1,100 sub-markets, ground the top-down view in what's actually being built and occupied.
The three combine into a five-year total-return range via Monte-Carlo simulation, with downside scenarios and an explicit probability of capital loss.
How far ahead does MPLC forecast, and how accurate is it?
The model is calibrated across 15+ years of history — a full cycle — and produces a five-year forward total-return forecast. The horizon is deliberate: commercial property is a long-term, through-the-cycle asset, so the model is built to recognise regimes and shocks, not to guess next quarter.
On accuracy, we're honest about what a model can do. Its edge is direction and relative ranking — which sectors and cities are cheap or stretched, and which will move hardest — not false-precision point prices. The proof is out-of-sample: calibrated blind on pre-2020 data, it independently flagged the 2021 boom and the 2023 correction. We publish a dated, unedited track record so anyone can check the calls over time.
Is MPLC Research independent, and is this financial advice?
MPLC Research is independent and publishes information and forecasts only — not financial, legal or tax advice, and not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. What we give you is where the model puts fair value versus today's pricing, how much of any repricing is already done, and the honest range of outcomes including the downside. You bring that to your own decision or your adviser.