When will the RBA cut interest rates?
The market has swung from expecting cuts to pricing higher-for-longer. The cash rate is on hold at 4.35%, but the reason cuts keep getting pushed out is core (trimmed-mean) inflation stuck near 3.6% — above the 2–3% target — while the 10-year bond has climbed to a 15-year high. That combination argues against near-term easing and keeps a rate rise on the table.
We don't publish a dated rate call — that's the RBA's to make. What we do is read the regime the data is actually in, and price property off it. Right now that regime is restrictive and sticky, which is why our commercial model sees repricing pressure rather than the yield relief a cutting cycle would bring.
What do higher-for-longer rates mean for property?
Two channels. For housing, a higher-for-longer rate keeps borrowing power squeezed, so prices stay under pressure until rates or incomes move — the froth cities are most exposed. For commercial, a higher bond lifts the fair-value cap rate, so values face more softening before they reach fair. Rates are the single driver that hits both property books at once.