Independent · public data · not advice
Australian commercial real estate, forecast from the top down and the bottom up — the RBA's cash rate joined to the supply pipeline and the leasing signal. A clear read on where yields and returns are heading, and the evidence to back it.
Why this exists
Macro houses tell you where rates are going. Agents tell you what's leasing. Almost no one joins the two.
Years in research, one wall kept coming up: no reliable way to marry a top-down macro view with the bottom-up reality of supply and demand on the ground. MPLC closes that gap — a model that runs from the cash rate down to the approvals pipeline and the leasing signal, built lean and fast where a research house needs a whole desk. Not a macro house. Not a property research shop — a specialist that gives you the call and the proof behind it.
This quarter's read
Base-case forecast, per annum. Income is doing the work while values soften — the spread between the strongest and weakest sector is the story.
What you get
Where each market is heading, and why — the forecast, the scenario stress-test, and the signals driving them, every number sourced. Enough to form a view in the time it takes to read it.
Every input, series and coefficient the forecast is built on — one tab per city, every commercial segment. Stress your own assumptions, challenge ours, or rebuild the call from scratch.
Coverage
Office, retail and industrial across the five largest markets — one coherent, comparable read.
How it works
No black box. The method is published, the forecasts are tested against history, and every figure carries its source.
The RBA cash rate and the bond market set the market yield each sector should price at — the macro anchor.
The approvals pipeline and leasing signal tell us what supply and demand are actually doing on the ground.
The two meet in a tested error-correction model, run thousands of times for a return range and a downside.
Pricing
Enterprise (bespoke city/sector deep-dives, residential & mixed-use, direct access to the team) from $25,000/yr. For context, comparable institutional forecasting subscriptions run materially higher — and don't show you the method or the raw data.
Get started
Start with one market, or take the full set. Information and forecasts only — not financial advice.